Probabilistic risk assessment of a hydrogen refuelling station explosion in a semi-urban environment using Monte Carlo simulation

¹ National Institute for Research and Development in Mine Safety and Protection to Explosion – INSEMEX Petroșani, 32-34 General Vasile Milea Street, Petroșani, Romania
² University of Petroșani, Doctoral School, 332006, Petrosani, Romania

^* Corresponding author: marius.suvar@insemex.ro

Abstract

Hydrogen is increasingly recognised as a viable clean energy carrier, yet its storage and handling at high pressures raise significant safety concerns, particularly in densely populated areas. This study presents a probabilistic risk assessment of a potential explosion at a hydrogen refuelling station located in a semi-urban environment, involving 100 kg of hydrogen stored at 700 bar. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was employed to model the dispersion of explosive energy and evaluate the consequences on human safety and infrastructure. Key variables included the stochastic efficiency of energy conversion into an explosion (ranging from 10% to 30%) and the random spatial distribution of individuals within a 50-meter radius. Over 10,000 simulations, the likelihood of at least one casualty exceeded 88%, with total impact on all exposed individuals occurring in 43% of cases. Additionally, structural damage to a nearby building located 30 meters from the epicenter was observed in 67% of scenarios. These results underscore the critical need for revised safety distances, enhanced protective measures, and rigorous failure probability management in the design and regulation of hydrogen refuelling facilities. The simulation was developed and executed using Python, allowing for efficient modeling and reproducibility. The methodology proposed offers a robust framework for quantifying the consequences of low-probability, high-impact events in urban energy infrastructure.